Houston forecast murky
Experts say global warming checked or unchecked threatens city and region
By ERIC BERGER
Houston Chronicle

In a warming world, the long-term forecast for Houston's climate and economy is cloudy. If governments leave greenhouse gas emissions unchecked, scientists say, increasing concentrations would continue to push temperatures higher, raise the seas and possibly intensify hurricanes and other severe weather events that cause flooding.

Yet quick action advocated by environmentalists to arrest global warming, such as a steep tax on fossil fuels that spew carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, could rock the area economy. Some 49 percent of Houston's economy comes from the energy sector. It now appears likely that some measures will be taken to address global warming as the debate moves beyond questioning of its existence. Late last month, a long-skeptical President Bush declared that human activity was warming the planet and that governments must take action to reverse the trend. It's impossible to say what that action will be or whether it will be effective.

But for a warm, energy-producing region like Southeast Texas, the issue is central to the region's climatological and economic future. "Houston clearly has some unique vulnerabilities," said Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric science at Texas A&M University. While climate researchers haggle over some details of global warming, all but a smattering of scientists agree on the basics: The world has warmed, greenhouse gas emissions from sources such as automobiles and power plants are largely to blame, and such warming will continue and possibly accelerate in the absence of strict regulations on greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.

Without such regulations, scientists generally agree, global temperatures will increase by 4 degrees to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. Winter insects? Temperatures in Southeast Texas would probably rise a similar amount, maybe a bit more, said John Nielsen-Gammon, the state's climatologist and a Texas A&M climate professor. "Texans are adapted to the heat, so there may not be much increase in morbidity except for those who can't afford air conditioning," Nielsen-Gammon said.

During warmer winters, tropical vegetation — and, unfortunately, insects — could flourish. Although there would be more moisture in the atmosphere, it's unclear whether a warming world would lead to more overall rainfall in Texas, Nielsen-Gammon said. Flood events, however, almost certainly would increase in frequency and severity.

Scientists differ on whether hurricanes would become stronger and if the exceptionally active 2005 Atlantic hurricane season would become the norm. However, with at least a foot or two rise in sea level — and possibly much more if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt more rapidly than expected — high tides and storm surges could inundate low-lying areas, including much of Galveston Island, scientists warn. Much of the upper Texas shoreline already is receding.

If energy costs rise as expected, global warming could have a greater impact on newer, Southern cities than on cities in the North. "A lot of cities in the southern United States were built with the idea that people have cars, access to cheap energy for air conditioning and don't need public transportation," Dessler said. "Living in Boston without energy would be a lot easier than doing so in Houston."

Acknowledging 'risks'As a local issue, global warming is complicated by Houston's deep ties to oil and gas, dating from Spindletop and the birth of the modern oil industry. The crucial question for Houston's economy is whether this entrenched industry can and will adapt if the federal government begins regulating the emissions of carbon dioxide. Some of the largest oil and gas businesses, such as Irving-based Exxon Mobil, have until recently resisted the concept of global warming.

Early this year, the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit group of more than 200,000 citizens and scientists, issued a report charging Exxon Mobil had adopted the tobacco industry's disinformation tactics toward global warming. According to the report, Exxon Mobil had funneled nearly $16 million between 1998 and 2005 to 43 advocacy organizations that sought to confuse the public on global warming science.
Exxon Mobil initially called the report a smear. A few months later, however, CEO Rex Tillerson began openly talking about global warming as a valid concern. While saying there was "still much that we do not know" about the phenomenon, Tillerson said it would be "prudent to develop and implement sensible strategies that address these risks."

Challenges, opportunitiesOther energy companies have viewed global warming as a serious problem for a longer time. "There's no question that setting carbon dioxide regulatory targets will have a profound impact on our business," said Bill Gerwing, general manager of regulatory affairs for BP. "But it's our fundamental belief that climate change is happening, that human carbon dioxide is a major factor, and that this creates as many opportunities as challenges for our business."

Barton Smith, professor of economics at the University of Houston, studied the impact of an alternative energy economy on Houston a few years ago and said he found the effect to be less than one might expect.
"As we get more and more involved in the menu of non-oil alternatives, you have to know Houston-based firms are going to be involved in that," Smith said. "Houston's oil industry has got its fingers in many, many pies, including alternative energies such as biofuels and wind." Houston could plausibly become a capital of alternative energy, Barton said.

To that end, BP recently opened the headquarters of its alternative energy and renewables firm, BP Alternative Energy, in Houston and plans to invest $8 billion in solar, wind, hydrogen and natural gas power technology and projects. BP and other alternative energy businesses have chosen Houston, Gerwing said, because of the city's traditional role as an energy capital and its welcoming regulatory environment, among other reasons. Coal threatsYet if federal caps are not placed on carbon emissions, it's plausible that Texas could ultimately lose its status as an energy center.

Most analysts believe that cheaply available oil and gas will be extracted during the next few decades. The question is, what will then fill the oil void? In the absence of carbon regulation, the clear answer is coal, many analysts say, because it's a cheap energy source in greater abundance in the United States than in any other country. Yet under such a scenario, both Houston and the environment could lose.

Houston is far removed from the coal belt, and heavy coal use would exacerbate global warming, because coal-fired power plants emit more carbon dioxide than any other source of electricity.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/5194040.html